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August’24 RBI Monetary Policy Highlights

Writer # Indiabonds | August 8, 2024

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The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) conducted its monetary policy meeting from August 6-8, 2024. On the basis of an assessment of the evolving macroeconomic situation, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) made the following announcements:

  • Keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50% by a majority of 4 out of 6, consequently the standing deposit facility is unchanged at 6.25%.
  • Accordingly, the Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate remain unchanged at 6.75%.
  • The reverse repo rate under the LAF stands unchanged at 3.35%.
  • The MPC also decided to remain focused on “withdrawal of accommodation” to ensure that inflation progressively aligns to the target, while supporting growth.
  • These decisions are in consonance with the objective of achieving the medium term target for consumer price index (CPI) inflation of 4% within a band of +/- 2%, while supporting growth.

Part A: RBI’s Policy decision Rationale:

1. Inflation

CPI headline inflation edged up in June after remaining steady during April – May, primarily driven by food components. Fuel prices remained in deflationary zone for the tenth consecutive month while core inflation continued to soften on broad based. Vegetable and edible oil prices experienced sharp increase, accompanied by rise in prices of cereals, milk, fruits and prepared meals primarily caused by supply side shock. Both core services inflation and core goods inflation witnessed slight slowdown in June.

The MPC expects CPI outlook to be shaped by several factors such as:

  • Normal monsoon, high kharif sowing and improved reservoir levels, could lead to softening of food inflation pressures over the course of the year.
  • Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and geo economic fragmentation may disrupt global supply chains, negatively impacting inflation.
  • Witnessing current conditions, CPI inflation for FY24-25 is projected at 4.50% with Q2 at 4.40%; Q3 at 4.70%; Q4 at 4.30% and for FY25-26 Q1 at 4.40%.
RBI Infographic CPI Aug 2024

2. Growth

During 2024-25 so far, domestic economic activity has maintained resilience. Manufacturing activity continues to gain ground on the back of strengthening domestic demand. Private corporate investment is also gaining steam on the back of expansion in bank credit. The eight core industries posted growth of 4% in June 2024. Manufacturing PMI remained elevated while services PMI stood strong above 60 for seventh consecutive months, indicating robust expansion. Additionally merchandise and service exports hold high. Also the current account deficit moderated due to lower trade deficit and robust services and remittances receipts.

The MPC expects real GDP to be based on the following factors:

  • Rural demand is improving, while urban expenditure is constant, supporting household consumption.
  • Strong financial positions of banks and corporations, combined with government spending and rising private investments, will likely boost fixed investment.
  • Strong domestic consumption patterns resulted in an uptick in imports across categories other than oil and gold.
  • Taking all these factors into consideration, real GDP growth for FY24-25 is projected at 7.20% with Q1 at 7.10%; Q2 at 7.20%; Q3 at 7.30%; Q4 at 7.20% and FY25-26 Q1 7.20%
RBI Infographic GDP August 2024

3. Liquidity

  • System liquidity transited from deficit in June to surplus conditions in July. In tune with the changing liquidity conditions, the Reserve Bank conducted two-way operations under the LAF to ensure that the inter-bank overnight rate remained closely aligned to the policy repo rate
  • The Reserve Bank injected liquidity via variable rate repo (VRR) operations during the second half of June, while mopped up surplus liquidity through variable rate reverse repo (VRRR) auctions in July as liquidity conditions eased.
  • Going forward, RBI will remain nimble and flexible in its liquidity management operations to ensure that money market interest rates evolve in an orderly manner.

4. Global Economy

The global economy is expanding steadily but unevenly, with manufacturing slowing while services activity remains robust. Central banks across globe are cautiously adjusting their monetary policies, with some easing restrictions and others maintain tightening. Financial markets are volatile, with bond yields and the dollar index weakening recently. While short-term prospects appear optimistic, the global economy faces substantial challenges in the medium term.

Part B: Key Statements on Developmental and Regulatory Policies:

1. Public Repository of Digital Lending Apps

RBI has proposed to launch a public repository that will list all Digital Lending Apps (DLAs) affiliated with Regulated Entities (REs), based on data submitted directly by REs. This repository will be updated regularly to reflect new additions or deletions.

2. Frequency of Reporting of Credit Information to Credit Information Companies

The RBI has directed credit institutions (CIs) to report borrowers’ credit information to credit information companies (CICs) every fortnight, replacing the previous monthly reporting schedule. This updated frequency will enhance the overall effectiveness of credit assessment and risk management.

3. Enhancing Transaction Limits for Tax Payments through UPI

The RBI has decided to increase the UPI transaction limit for tax payments from Rs.1 lakh to Rs.5 lakh. UPI, a widely-used payment method, previously had a cap of Rs.1 lakh, though limits have been periodically reviewed and increased for various categories like capital markets, IPO subscriptions, and loan collections.

4. Introduction of Delegated Payments through UPI

The RBI plans to introduce a new feature called “Delegated Payments” in UPI to enhance its utility. Delegated Payments will enable a primary user to set a UPI transaction limit for a secondary user on the primary user’s bank account.

5. Continuous Clearing of Cheques under Cheque Truncation System (CTS)

The RBI plans to enhance the efficiency of the Cheque Truncation System (CTS) by transitioning from batch processing to continuous clearing with ‘on-realization-settlement’. Currently, CTS processes cheques with a clearing cycle of up to two working days. The new approach will enable cheques to be scanned, presented, and cleared within a few hours during business hours, reducing the clearing cycle from T+1 days to just hours.

The next meeting of the MPC is scheduled during October 7 to 9, 2024.

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